Author, as appears in the article.: Soriano-Panos, David; Ghoshal, Gourab; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus;

Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro

Keywords: Spread Network dynamics Metapopulation models Infectious-diseases Epidemic modelling Empirical-evidence Climate-change

Abstract: Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Indeed, the inclusion of population movement into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes as well as designing efficient prevention policies. Following this challenge, here we develop a Markovian framework that enables us to address the impact of recurrent mobility patterns on epidemic onset at different temporal scales. The formalism is validated by comparing its predictions with results from mechanistic simulations. The fair agreement between theory and numerical simulations, enables us to derive an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold, capturing the critical conditions triggering epidemic outbreaks. Finally, by performing an exhaustive analysis of this epidemic threshold, we reveal that the impact of tuning human mobility on the emergence of diseases is strongly affected by the temporal scales associated to both epidemiological and mobility processes.

Thematic Areas: Statistics, probability and uncertainty Statistics and probability Statistical and nonlinear physics Química Physics, mathematical Medicina ii Mechanics Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar Geociências Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias ii Engenharias i Economia Ciencias sociales Ciências biológicas ii Ciências biológicas i Ciências ambientais Ciências agrárias i Ciência da computação Biodiversidade Astronomia / física

licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/

ISSN: 1742-5468

Author's mail: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat

Author identifier: 0000-0003-0937-0334

Record's date: 2023-02-19

Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion

Link to the original source: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-5468/ab6a04

Licence document URL: http://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/

Papper original source: Journal Of Statistical Mechanics-Theory And Experiment. 2020 (2):

APA: Soriano-Panos, David; Ghoshal, Gourab; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; (2020). Impact of temporal scales and recurrent mobility patterns on the unfolding of epidemics. Journal Of Statistical Mechanics-Theory And Experiment, 2020(2), -. DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab6a04

Article's DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab6a04

Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili

Journal publication year: 2020

Publication Type: Journal Publications