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Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities

  • Dades identificatives

    Identificador: imarina:9226642
    Autors:
    Hazarie, SurendraSoriano-Panos, DavidArenas, AlexGomez-Gardenes, JesusGhoshal, Gourab
    Resum:
    The increasing agglomeration of people in dense urban areas coupled with the existence of efficient modes of transportation connecting such centers, make cities particularly vulnerable to the spread of epidemics. Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading. We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our framework to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Based on this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.The evolution of epidemic outbreaks in urban settings is known to stem from the interplay between demographic, structural, and economical characteristics. Here, the authors combine a data driven approach with meta-population modelling to show that the epidemic vulnerability of cities hinges on the morphology of human flows, and propose how a city's mobility backbone could be modified to minimize the epidemic risk.
  • Altres:

    Autor segons l'article: Hazarie, Surendra; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Ghoshal, Gourab
    Departament: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    Autor/s de la URV: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro
    Paraules clau: Urban transportation Population statistics Population dynamics Population distribution Population densities Optimal control systems Optimal control strategy Networks Multiscale Mobility pattern Mitigation strategy Impact High population density Epidemiology Epidemic spreading Driven Dense urban areas Data-driven approach Covid-19 Complex
    Resum: The increasing agglomeration of people in dense urban areas coupled with the existence of efficient modes of transportation connecting such centers, make cities particularly vulnerable to the spread of epidemics. Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading. We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our framework to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Based on this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.The evolution of epidemic outbreaks in urban settings is known to stem from the interplay between demographic, structural, and economical characteristics. Here, the authors combine a data driven approach with meta-population modelling to show that the epidemic vulnerability of cities hinges on the morphology of human flows, and propose how a city's mobility backbone could be modified to minimize the epidemic risk.
    Àrees temàtiques: Physics, multidisciplinary Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) General physics and astronomy Ciencias sociales
    Accès a la llicència d'ús: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Adreça de correu electrònic de l'autor: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
    Identificador de l'autor: 0000-0003-0937-0334
    Data d'alta del registre: 2024-09-28
    Volum de revista: 4
    Versió de l'article dipositat: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Enllaç font original: https://www.nature.com/articles/s42005-021-00679-0
    URL Document de llicència: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Referència a l'article segons font original: Communications Physics. 4 (1): 191-
    Referència de l'ítem segons les normes APA: Hazarie, Surendra; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Ghoshal, Gourab (2021). Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities. Communications Physics, 4(1), 191-. DOI: 10.1038/s42005-021-00679-0
    DOI de l'article: 10.1038/s42005-021-00679-0
    Entitat: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Any de publicació de la revista: 2021
    Tipus de publicació: Journal Publications
  • Paraules clau:

    Physics and Astronomy (Miscellaneous),Physics, Multidisciplinary
    Urban transportation
    Population statistics
    Population dynamics
    Population distribution
    Population densities
    Optimal control systems
    Optimal control strategy
    Networks
    Multiscale
    Mobility pattern
    Mitigation strategy
    Impact
    High population density
    Epidemiology
    Epidemic spreading
    Driven
    Dense urban areas
    Data-driven approach
    Covid-19
    Complex
    Physics, multidisciplinary
    Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous)
    Physics and astronomy (all)
    General physics and astronomy
    Ciencias sociales
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