Author, as appears in the article.: Gutierrez-Roig, Mario; Segura, Carlota; Duch, Jordi; Perello, Josep;
Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
URV's Author/s: Duch Gavaldà, Jordi
Abstract: Decisions made in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market provides a rich environment to study how people make decisions since responding to market uncertainty needs a constant update of these strategies. For this purpose, we run a lab-in-the-field experiment where volunteers are given a controlled set of financial information -based on real data from worldwide financial indices- and they are required to guess whether the market price would go "up" or "down" in each situation. From the data collected we explore basic statistical traits, behavioural biases and emerging strategies. In particular, we detect unintended patterns of behavior through consistent actions, which can be interpreted as Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift emerging strategies, with Market Imitation being the most dominant. We also observe that these strategies are affected by external factors: the expert advice, the lack of information or an information overload reinforce the use of these intuitive strategies, while the probability to follow them significantly decreases when subjects spends more time to make a decision. The cohort analysis shows that women and children are more prone to use such strategies although their performance is not undermined. Our results are of interest for better handling clients expectations of trading companies, to avoid behavioural anomalies in financial analysts decisions and to improve not only the design of markets but also the trading digital interfaces where information is set down. Strategies and behavioural biases observed can also be translated into new agent based modelling or stochastic price dynamics to better understand financial bubbles or the effects of asymmetric risk perception to price drops.
Thematic Areas: Zootecnia / recursos pesqueiros Sociology Sociología Serviço social Saúde coletiva Química Psychology Psicología Planejamento urbano e regional / demografia Odontología Nutrição Multidisciplinary sciences Multidisciplinary Medicine (miscellaneous) Medicina veterinaria Medicina iii Medicina ii Medicina i Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Linguística e literatura Letras / linguística Interdisciplinary research in the social sciences Interdisciplinar Human geography and urban studies History & philosophy of science Historia Geografía Geociências General medicine General biochemistry,genetics and molecular biology General agricultural and biological sciences Farmacia Environmental studies Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias ii Engenharias i Enfermagem Educação física Educação Economia Direito Demography Comunicação e informação Ciências sociais aplicadas i Ciências biológicas iii Ciências biológicas ii Ciências biológicas i Ciências ambientais Ciências agrárias i Ciência política e relações internacionais Ciência de alimentos Ciência da computação Biotecnología Biology Biodiversidade Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (miscellaneous) Astronomia / física Arquitetura, urbanismo e design Archaeology Antropologia / arqueologia Anthropology Agricultural and biological sciences (miscellaneous) Administração, ciências contábeis e turismo Administração pública e de empresas, ciências contábeis e turismo
licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Author's mail: jordi.duch@urv.cat
Author identifier: 0000-0003-2639-6333
Record's date: 2024-09-07
Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Link to the original source: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0159078
Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
Papper original source: Plos One. 11 (8): e0159078-
APA: Gutierrez-Roig, Mario; Segura, Carlota; Duch, Jordi; Perello, Josep; (2016). Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift Strategies Emerge as Unintended Patterns in Market Direction Guesses. Plos One, 11(8), e0159078-. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159078
Article's DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159078
Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Journal publication year: 2016
Publication Type: Journal Publications
Repositori URV