Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift Strategies Emerge as Unintended Patterns in Market Direction Guesses

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:3672509
  • Authors:

    Gutierrez-Roig, Mario
    Segura, Carlota
    Duch, Jordi
    Perello, Josep
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Gutierrez-Roig, Mario; Segura, Carlota; Duch, Jordi; Perello, Josep;
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Duch Gavaldà, Jordi
    Abstract: Decisions made in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market provides a rich environment to study how people make decisions since responding to market uncertainty needs a constant update of these strategies. For this purpose, we run a lab-in-the-field experiment where volunteers are given a controlled set of financial information -based on real data from worldwide financial indices- and they are required to guess whether the market price would go "up" or "down" in each situation. From the data collected we explore basic statistical traits, behavioural biases and emerging strategies. In particular, we detect unintended patterns of behavior through consistent actions, which can be interpreted as Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift emerging strategies, with Market Imitation being the most dominant. We also observe that these strategies are affected by external factors: the expert advice, the lack of information or an information overload reinforce the use of these intuitive strategies, while the probability to follow them significantly decreases when subjects spends more time to make a decision. The cohort analysis shows that women and children are more prone to use such strategies although their performance is not undermined. Our results are of interest for better handling clients expectations of trading companies, to avoid behavioural anomalies in financial analysts decisions and to improve not only the design of markets but also the trading digital interfaces where information is set down. Strategies and behavioural biases observed can also be translated into new agent based modelling or stochastic price dynamics to better understand financial bubbles or the effects of asymmetric risk perception to price drops.
    Thematic Areas: Zootecnia / recursos pesqueiros Sociology Sociología Serviço social Saúde coletiva Química Psychology Psicología Planejamento urbano e regional / demografia Odontología Nutrição Multidisciplinary sciences Multidisciplinary Medicine (miscellaneous) Medicina veterinaria Medicina iii Medicina ii Medicina i Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Linguística e literatura Letras / linguística Interdisciplinary research in the social sciences Interdisciplinar Human geography and urban studies History & philosophy of science Historia Geografía Geociências General medicine General biochemistry,genetics and molecular biology General agricultural and biological sciences Farmacia Environmental studies Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias ii Engenharias i Enfermagem Educação física Educação Economia Direito Demography Comunicação e informação Ciências sociais aplicadas i Ciências biológicas iii Ciências biológicas ii Ciências biológicas i Ciências ambientais Ciências agrárias i Ciência política e relações internacionais Ciência de alimentos Ciência da computação Biotecnología Biology Biodiversidade Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (miscellaneous) Astronomia / física Arquitetura, urbanismo e design Archaeology Antropologia / arqueologia Anthropology Agricultural and biological sciences (miscellaneous) Administração, ciências contábeis e turismo Administração pública e de empresas, ciências contábeis e turismo
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: jordi.duch@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0003-2639-6333
    Record's date: 2024-07-20
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0159078
    Licence document URL: http://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Papper original source: Plos One. 11 (8): e0159078-
    APA: Gutierrez-Roig, Mario; Segura, Carlota; Duch, Jordi; Perello, Josep; (2016). Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift Strategies Emerge as Unintended Patterns in Market Direction Guesses. Plos One, 11(8), e0159078-. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159078
    Article's DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159078
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2016
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Agricultural and Biological Sciences (Miscellaneous),Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Miscellaneous),Biology,Medicine (Miscellaneous),Multidisciplinary,Multidisciplinary Sciences
    Zootecnia / recursos pesqueiros
    Sociology
    Sociología
    Serviço social
    Saúde coletiva
    Química
    Psychology
    Psicología
    Planejamento urbano e regional / demografia
    Odontología
    Nutrição
    Multidisciplinary sciences
    Multidisciplinary
    Medicine (miscellaneous)
    Medicina veterinaria
    Medicina iii
    Medicina ii
    Medicina i
    Materiais
    Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
    Linguística e literatura
    Letras / linguística
    Interdisciplinary research in the social sciences
    Interdisciplinar
    Human geography and urban studies
    History & philosophy of science
    Historia
    Geografía
    Geociências
    General medicine
    General biochemistry,genetics and molecular biology
    General agricultural and biological sciences
    Farmacia
    Environmental studies
    Ensino
    Engenharias iv
    Engenharias iii
    Engenharias ii
    Engenharias i
    Enfermagem
    Educação física
    Educação
    Economia
    Direito
    Demography
    Comunicação e informação
    Ciências sociais aplicadas i
    Ciências biológicas iii
    Ciências biológicas ii
    Ciências biológicas i
    Ciências ambientais
    Ciências agrárias i
    Ciência política e relações internacionais
    Ciência de alimentos
    Ciência da computação
    Biotecnología
    Biology
    Biodiversidade
    Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (miscellaneous)
    Astronomia / física
    Arquitetura, urbanismo e design
    Archaeology
    Antropologia / arqueologia
    Anthropology
    Agricultural and biological sciences (miscellaneous)
    Administração, ciências contábeis e turismo
    Administração pública e de empresas, ciências contábeis e turismo
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