Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Impact of temporal scales and recurrent mobility patterns on the unfolding of epidemics

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:6230109
    Authors:
    Soriano-Panos, DavidGhoshal, GourabArenas, AlexGomez-Gardenes, Jesus
    Abstract:
    Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Indeed, the inclusion of population movement into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes as well as designing efficient prevention policies. Following this challenge, here we develop a Markovian framework that enables us to address the impact of recurrent mobility patterns on epidemic onset at different temporal scales. The formalism is validated by comparing its predictions with results from mechanistic simulations. The fair agreement between theory and numerical simulations, enables us to derive an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold, capturing the critical conditions triggering epidemic outbreaks. Finally, by performing an exhaustive analysis of this epidemic threshold, we reveal that the impact of tuning human mobility on the emergence of diseases is strongly affected by the temporal scales associated to both epidemiological and mobility processes.
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Soriano-Panos, David; Ghoshal, Gourab; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro
    Keywords: Spread Network dynamics Metapopulation models Infectious-diseases Epidemic modelling Empirical-evidence Climate-change
    Abstract: Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Indeed, the inclusion of population movement into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes as well as designing efficient prevention policies. Following this challenge, here we develop a Markovian framework that enables us to address the impact of recurrent mobility patterns on epidemic onset at different temporal scales. The formalism is validated by comparing its predictions with results from mechanistic simulations. The fair agreement between theory and numerical simulations, enables us to derive an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold, capturing the critical conditions triggering epidemic outbreaks. Finally, by performing an exhaustive analysis of this epidemic threshold, we reveal that the impact of tuning human mobility on the emergence of diseases is strongly affected by the temporal scales associated to both epidemiological and mobility processes.
    Thematic Areas: Statistics, probability and uncertainty Statistics and probability Statistical and nonlinear physics Química Physics, mathematical Medicina ii Mechanics Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar Geociências Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias ii Engenharias i Economia Ciencias sociales Ciências biológicas ii Ciências biológicas i Ciências ambientais Ciências agrárias i Ciência da computação Biodiversidade Astronomia / física
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    ISSN: 1742-5468
    Author's mail: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0003-0937-0334
    Record's date: 2024-09-28
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-5468/ab6a04
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Papper original source: Journal Of Statistical Mechanics-Theory And Experiment. 2020 (2): 024006-
    APA: Soriano-Panos, David; Ghoshal, Gourab; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus (2020). Impact of temporal scales and recurrent mobility patterns on the unfolding of epidemics. Journal Of Statistical Mechanics-Theory And Experiment, 2020(2), 024006-. DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab6a04
    Article's DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab6a04
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2020
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Mechanics,Physics, Mathematical,Statistical and Nonlinear Physics,Statistics and Probability,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
    Spread
    Network dynamics
    Metapopulation models
    Infectious-diseases
    Epidemic modelling
    Empirical-evidence
    Climate-change
    Statistics, probability and uncertainty
    Statistics and probability
    Statistical and nonlinear physics
    Química
    Physics, mathematical
    Medicina ii
    Mechanics
    Materiais
    Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
    Interdisciplinar
    Geociências
    Ensino
    Engenharias iv
    Engenharias iii
    Engenharias ii
    Engenharias i
    Economia
    Ciencias sociales
    Ciências biológicas ii
    Ciências biológicas i
    Ciências ambientais
    Ciências agrárias i
    Ciência da computação
    Biodiversidade
    Astronomia / física
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