Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:9006522
  • Authors:

    Alex Arenas
    Wesley Cota
    Jesus Gomez-Gardenes
    Sergio Gómez
    Clara Granell
    Joan T Matamalas
    David Soriano-Panos
    Benjamin Steinegger
    Communications Of The Acm
    https://journals.aps.org/prx/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevX.10.041055
    10.1101/2020.03.21.20040022
    Communications Of The Acm.
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro / Gómez Jiménez, Sergio / Matamalas Llodrà, Joan Tomàs / Steinegger, Benjamin Franz Josef
    Abstract: An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, that provokes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China on 31 December 2019. As of 20 March 2020, cases have been reported in 166 countries/regions, including cases of human-to-human transmission around the world. The proportions of this epidemics is probably one of the largest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the current epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number, R_0 ~ 2.3, number of secondary cases produced by an infected individual in a population of susceptible individuals, as well as an asymptomatic period (up to 14 days) in which infectious individuals are undetectable without further analysis, pave the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems. Recent scientific reports have pointed out that the detected cases of COVID19 at young ages is strikingly short and that lethality is concentrated at large ages. Here we adapt a Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA) metapopulation mobility model to capture the spread of COVID-19. We propose a model that stratifies the population by ages, and account for the different incidences of the disease at each strata. The model is used to predict the incidence of the epidemics in a spatial population through time, permitting investigation of control measures. The model is applied to the current epidemic in Spain, using the estimates of the epidemiological parameters and the mobility and demographic census data of the national institute of statistics (INE). The results indicate that the peak of incidence will happen in the first half of April …
    Thematic Areas: Ciência da computação Computer science (all) Computer science (miscellaneous) Computer science, hardware & architecture Computer science, software engineering Computer science, software, graphics, programming Computer science, theory & methods General computer science Interdisciplinar Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: benjamin.steinegger@estudiants.urv.cat sergio.gomez@urv.cat alexandre.arenas@urv.cat joantomas.matamalas@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0002-0723-1536 0000-0003-1820-0062 0000-0003-0937-0334 0000-0002-7563-9269
    Record's date: 2024-02-03
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://journals.aps.org/prx/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevX.10.041055
    Papper original source: Communications Of The Acm.
    APA: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger (2020). A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19. Communications Of The Acm, (), -. DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.21.20040022
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Article's DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.21.20040022
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2020
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Computer Science (Miscellaneous),Computer Science, Hardware & Architecture,Computer Science, Software Engineering,Computer Science, Software, Graphics, Programming,Computer Science, Theory & Methods
    Ciência da computação
    Computer science (all)
    Computer science (miscellaneous)
    Computer science, hardware & architecture
    Computer science, software engineering
    Computer science, software, graphics, programming
    Computer science, theory & methods
    General computer science
    Interdisciplinar
    Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
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