Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:9226642
    Authors:
    Hazarie, SurendraSoriano-Panos, DavidArenas, AlexGomez-Gardenes, JesusGhoshal, Gourab
    Abstract:
    The increasing agglomeration of people in dense urban areas coupled with the existence of efficient modes of transportation connecting such centers, make cities particularly vulnerable to the spread of epidemics. Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading. We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our framework to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Based on this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.The evolution of epidemic outbreaks in urban settings is known to stem from the interplay between demographic, structural, and economical characteristics. Here, the authors combine a data driven approach with meta-population modelling to show that the epidemic vulnerability of cities hinges on the morphology of human flows, and propose how a city's mobility backbone could be modified to minimize the epidemic risk.
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Hazarie, Surendra; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Ghoshal, Gourab
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro
    Keywords: Urban transportation Population statistics Population dynamics Population distribution Population densities Optimal control systems Optimal control strategy Networks Multiscale Mobility pattern Mitigation strategy Impact High population density Epidemiology Epidemic spreading Driven Dense urban areas Data-driven approach Covid-19 Complex
    Abstract: The increasing agglomeration of people in dense urban areas coupled with the existence of efficient modes of transportation connecting such centers, make cities particularly vulnerable to the spread of epidemics. Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading. We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our framework to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Based on this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.The evolution of epidemic outbreaks in urban settings is known to stem from the interplay between demographic, structural, and economical characteristics. Here, the authors combine a data driven approach with meta-population modelling to show that the epidemic vulnerability of cities hinges on the morphology of human flows, and propose how a city's mobility backbone could be modified to minimize the epidemic risk.
    Thematic Areas: Physics, multidisciplinary Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) General physics and astronomy Ciencias sociales
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0003-0937-0334
    Record's date: 2024-09-28
    Journal volume: 4
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s42005-021-00679-0
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Papper original source: Communications Physics. 4 (1): 191-
    APA: Hazarie, Surendra; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Ghoshal, Gourab (2021). Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities. Communications Physics, 4(1), 191-. DOI: 10.1038/s42005-021-00679-0
    Article's DOI: 10.1038/s42005-021-00679-0
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2021
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Physics and Astronomy (Miscellaneous),Physics, Multidisciplinary
    Urban transportation
    Population statistics
    Population dynamics
    Population distribution
    Population densities
    Optimal control systems
    Optimal control strategy
    Networks
    Multiscale
    Mobility pattern
    Mitigation strategy
    Impact
    High population density
    Epidemiology
    Epidemic spreading
    Driven
    Dense urban areas
    Data-driven approach
    Covid-19
    Complex
    Physics, multidisciplinary
    Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous)
    Physics and astronomy (all)
    General physics and astronomy
    Ciencias sociales
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