Author, as appears in the article.: Steinegger, Benjamin; Arola-Fernandez, Lluis; Granell, Clara; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Arenas, Alex
Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro / Arola Fernández, Lluís / Granell Martorell, Clara / Steinegger, Benjamin Franz Josef
Keywords: Spreading Spread Sars-cov-2 Prophylaxis Humans Epidemic Dynamics Covid-19 Aged
Abstract: Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.
Thematic Areas: Química Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) Multidisciplinary sciences Medicina ii Mathematics (miscellaneous) Mathematics (all) Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar Geociências General physics and astronomy General medicine General mathematics General engineering Engineering (miscellaneous) Engineering (all) Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias i Economia Ciências biológicas i Ciência da computação Biodiversidade Astronomia / física
licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Author's mail: clara.granell@urv.cat benjamin.steinegger@estudiants.urv.cat lluis.arola@estudiants.urv.cat lluis.arola@estudiants.urv.cat alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
Author identifier: 0000-0002-0723-1536 0000-0003-0937-0334
Record's date: 2024-09-28
Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Link to the original source: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
Papper original source: Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences. 380 (2214): 20210119-
APA: Steinegger, Benjamin; Arola-Fernandez, Lluis; Granell, Clara; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Arenas, Alex (2022). Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 380(2214), 20210119-. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
Article's DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Journal publication year: 2022
Publication Type: Journal Publications