Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:9232651
    Authors:
    Steinegger, BenjaminArola-Fernandez, LluisGranell, ClaraGomez-Gardenes, JesusArenas, Alex
    Abstract:
    Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Steinegger, Benjamin; Arola-Fernandez, Lluis; Granell, Clara; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Arenas, Alex
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro / Arola Fernández, Lluís / Granell Martorell, Clara / Steinegger, Benjamin Franz Josef
    Keywords: Spreading Spread Sars-cov-2 Prophylaxis Humans Epidemic Dynamics Covid-19 Aged
    Abstract: Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.
    Thematic Areas: Química Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) Multidisciplinary sciences Medicina ii Mathematics (miscellaneous) Mathematics (all) Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar Geociências General physics and astronomy General medicine General mathematics General engineering Engineering (miscellaneous) Engineering (all) Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias i Economia Ciências biológicas i Ciência da computação Biodiversidade Astronomia / física
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: clara.granell@urv.cat benjamin.steinegger@estudiants.urv.cat lluis.arola@estudiants.urv.cat lluis.arola@estudiants.urv.cat alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0002-0723-1536 0000-0003-0937-0334
    Record's date: 2024-09-28
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Papper original source: Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences. 380 (2214): 20210119-
    APA: Steinegger, Benjamin; Arola-Fernandez, Lluis; Granell, Clara; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Arenas, Alex (2022). Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 380(2214), 20210119-. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
    Article's DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2022
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Engineering (Miscellaneous),Mathematics (Miscellaneous),Multidisciplinary Sciences,Physics and Astronomy (Miscellaneous)
    Spreading
    Spread
    Sars-cov-2
    Prophylaxis
    Humans
    Epidemic
    Dynamics
    Covid-19
    Aged
    Química
    Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous)
    Physics and astronomy (all)
    Multidisciplinary sciences
    Medicina ii
    Mathematics (miscellaneous)
    Mathematics (all)
    Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
    Interdisciplinar
    Geociências
    General physics and astronomy
    General medicine
    General mathematics
    General engineering
    Engineering (miscellaneous)
    Engineering (all)
    Engenharias iv
    Engenharias iii
    Engenharias i
    Economia
    Ciências biológicas i
    Ciência da computação
    Biodiversidade
    Astronomia / física
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