Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups

Identifier:  imarina:9232651

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/imarina9232651

Authors:  Steinegger, Benjamin; Arola-Fernandez, Lluis; Granell, Clara; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Arenas, Alex

Abstract:
Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.