Modeling Communicable Diseases, Human Mobility, and Epidemics: A Review

Identifier:  imarina:9247342

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/imarina9247342

Authors:  Soriano-Paños, D; Cota, W; Ferreira, SC; Ghoshal, G; Arenas, A; Gómez-Gardeñes, J

Abstract:
The spatiotemporal propagation patterns of recent infectious diseases, originated as localized epidemic outbreaks and eventually becoming global pandemics, are highly influenced by human mobility. Case exportation from endemic areas to the rest of the countries has become unavoidable because of the striking growth of the global mobility network, helping to overcome the physical distance existing between faraway regions. In this context, understanding the features driving contagions upon the arrival of an index case in local environments constitutes an essential task to devise policies aimed at avoiding the community transmission of these diseases and the subsequent case exportation to other unaffected areas. In this review, an overview of the different models addressing this topic is given, focusing on the movement–interaction–return model and different subsequent frameworks introduced to explain the complex interplay between the recurrent movements and contagion dynamics.