Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:9264771
    Authors:
    Steinegger BIacopini ITeixeira ASBracci ACasanova-Ferrer PAntonioni AValdano E
    Abstract:
    Epidemic control often requires optimal distribution of available vaccines and prophylactic tools, to protect from infection those susceptible. Well-established theory recommends prioritizing those at the highest risk of exposure. But the risk is hard to estimate, especially for diseases involving stigma and marginalization. We address this conundrum by proving that one should target those at high risk only if the infection-averting efficacy of prevention is above a critical value, which we derive analytically. We apply this to the distribution of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM), a population particularly vulnerable to HIV. PrEP is effective in averting infections, but its global scale-up has been slow, showing the need to revisit distribution strategies, currently risk-based. Using data from MSM communities in 58 countries, we find that non-selective PrEP distribution often outperforms risk-based, showing that a logistically simpler strategy is also more effective. Our theory may help design more feasible and successful prevention.© 2022. The Author(s).
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Steinegger B; Iacopini I; Teixeira AS; Bracci A; Casanova-Ferrer P; Antonioni A; Valdano E
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Steinegger, Benjamin Franz Josef
    Keywords: Preexposure prophylaxis vaccine msm men hiv efficacy
    Abstract: Epidemic control often requires optimal distribution of available vaccines and prophylactic tools, to protect from infection those susceptible. Well-established theory recommends prioritizing those at the highest risk of exposure. But the risk is hard to estimate, especially for diseases involving stigma and marginalization. We address this conundrum by proving that one should target those at high risk only if the infection-averting efficacy of prevention is above a critical value, which we derive analytically. We apply this to the distribution of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM), a population particularly vulnerable to HIV. PrEP is effective in averting infections, but its global scale-up has been slow, showing the need to revisit distribution strategies, currently risk-based. Using data from MSM communities in 58 countries, we find that non-selective PrEP distribution often outperforms risk-based, showing that a logistically simpler strategy is also more effective. Our theory may help design more feasible and successful prevention.© 2022. The Author(s).
    Thematic Areas: Zootecnia / recursos pesqueiros Saúde coletiva Química Psicología Planejamento urbano e regional / demografia Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) Odontología Nutrição Multidisciplinary sciences Multidisciplinary Medicina veterinaria Medicina iii Medicina ii Medicina i Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar Geociências General physics and astronomy General medicine General chemistry General biochemistry,genetics and molecular biology Farmacia Engenharias iv Educação física Ciências biológicas iii Ciências biológicas ii Ciências biológicas i Ciências ambientais Ciências agrárias i Ciência da computação Chemistry (miscellaneous) Chemistry (all) Biotecnología Biodiversidade Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (miscellaneous) Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (all) Astronomia / física Antropologia / arqueologia
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: benjamin.steinegger@estudiants.urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0002-0723-1536
    Record's date: 2024-09-07
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30639-3
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Papper original source: Nature Communications. 13 (1): 3028-3028
    APA: Steinegger B; Iacopini I; Teixeira AS; Bracci A; Casanova-Ferrer P; Antonioni A; Valdano E (2022). Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting. Nature Communications, 13(1), 3028-3028. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30639-3
    Article's DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30639-3
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2022
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Miscellaneous),Chemistry (Miscellaneous),Multidisciplinary Sciences,Physics and Astronomy (Miscellaneous)
    Preexposure prophylaxis
    vaccine
    msm
    men
    hiv
    efficacy
    Zootecnia / recursos pesqueiros
    Saúde coletiva
    Química
    Psicología
    Planejamento urbano e regional / demografia
    Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous)
    Physics and astronomy (all)
    Odontología
    Nutrição
    Multidisciplinary sciences
    Multidisciplinary
    Medicina veterinaria
    Medicina iii
    Medicina ii
    Medicina i
    Materiais
    Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
    Interdisciplinar
    Geociências
    General physics and astronomy
    General medicine
    General chemistry
    General biochemistry,genetics and molecular biology
    Farmacia
    Engenharias iv
    Educação física
    Ciências biológicas iii
    Ciências biológicas ii
    Ciências biológicas i
    Ciências ambientais
    Ciências agrárias i
    Ciência da computação
    Chemistry (miscellaneous)
    Chemistry (all)
    Biotecnología
    Biodiversidade
    Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (miscellaneous)
    Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (all)
    Astronomia / física
    Antropologia / arqueologia
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