Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Química

Assessing the realism of clean energy projections

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:9378026
    Authors:
    Rostami FPatrizio PJimenez LPozo CMac Dowell N
    Abstract:
    Although pivotal in the climate change discourse, integrated assessment models (IAMs) often face criticism for their overly optimistic projections. In this contribution, we critically examine IAM limitations in the context of clean energy technologies and critical materials. IAMs project a very substantial increase in clean energy technology deployment by 2050. When considering diverse technology types and their material requirements - information missing from IAMs - we find that this may represent a substantial 571-fold surge in selenium demand and a 531-fold increase in gallium, figures that seem difficult to achieve. This challenges not only the capacity of material reserves but also the rate at which these can be produced. To address this gap, we propose establishing a direct link between industrial assets and required materials through simple constraints on material availability. We illustrate the capabilities of this approach by estimating the achievable clean energy capacities by 2050. We find potential shortages in the capacity developed for clean energy technologies compared to IAM projections that may result in deviations from the Paris agreement target by 0.06-0.95 °C. Therefore, incorporating material constraints and technological diversity into IAMs presents a valuable opportunity to enhance their predictive accuracy and guide evidence-based policymaking. Including these aspects in IAMs and decision-support tools will make them more useful in shaping a sustainable yet realistic energy sector.
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Rostami F; Patrizio P; Jimenez L; Pozo C; Mac Dowell N
    Department: Enginyeria Química
    URV's Author/s: Jiménez Esteller, Laureano / Pozo Fernández, Carlos / Rostami, Fatemeh
    Abstract: Although pivotal in the climate change discourse, integrated assessment models (IAMs) often face criticism for their overly optimistic projections. In this contribution, we critically examine IAM limitations in the context of clean energy technologies and critical materials. IAMs project a very substantial increase in clean energy technology deployment by 2050. When considering diverse technology types and their material requirements - information missing from IAMs - we find that this may represent a substantial 571-fold surge in selenium demand and a 531-fold increase in gallium, figures that seem difficult to achieve. This challenges not only the capacity of material reserves but also the rate at which these can be produced. To address this gap, we propose establishing a direct link between industrial assets and required materials through simple constraints on material availability. We illustrate the capabilities of this approach by estimating the achievable clean energy capacities by 2050. We find potential shortages in the capacity developed for clean energy technologies compared to IAM projections that may result in deviations from the Paris agreement target by 0.06-0.95 °C. Therefore, incorporating material constraints and technological diversity into IAMs presents a valuable opportunity to enhance their predictive accuracy and guide evidence-based policymaking. Including these aspects in IAMs and decision-support tools will make them more useful in shaping a sustainable yet realistic energy sector.
    Thematic Areas: Astronomia / física Biotecnología Chemistry, multidisciplinary Energy & fuels Engenharias i Engenharias ii Engenharias iv Engineering, chemical Environmental chemistry Environmental sciences Materiais Nuclear energy and engineering Pollution Química Renewable energy, sustainability and the environment
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: laureano.jimenez@urv.cat fatemeh.rostami@urv.cat carlos.pozo@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0002-3186-7235
    Record's date: 2024-10-12
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2024/ee/d4ee00747f
    Papper original source: Energy & Environmental Science. 17 (14): 5241-5259
    APA: Rostami F; Patrizio P; Jimenez L; Pozo C; Mac Dowell N (2024). Assessing the realism of clean energy projections. Energy & Environmental Science, 17(14), 5241-5259. DOI: 10.1039/d4ee00747f
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Article's DOI: 10.1039/d4ee00747f
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2024
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Chemistry, Multidisciplinary,Energy & Fuels,Engineering, Chemical,Environmental Chemistry,Environmental Sciences,Nuclear Energy and Engineering,Pollution,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
    Astronomia / física
    Biotecnología
    Chemistry, multidisciplinary
    Energy & fuels
    Engenharias i
    Engenharias ii
    Engenharias iv
    Engineering, chemical
    Environmental chemistry
    Environmental sciences
    Materiais
    Nuclear energy and engineering
    Pollution
    Química
    Renewable energy, sustainability and the environment
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