Author, as appears in the article.: Rostami F; Patrizio P; Jimenez L; Pozo C; Mac Dowell N
Department: Enginyeria Química
URV's Author/s: Jiménez Esteller, Laureano / Pozo Fernández, Carlos / Rostami, Fatemeh
Abstract: Although pivotal in the climate change discourse, integrated assessment models (IAMs) often face criticism for their overly optimistic projections. In this contribution, we critically examine IAM limitations in the context of clean energy technologies and critical materials. IAMs project a very substantial increase in clean energy technology deployment by 2050. When considering diverse technology types and their material requirements - information missing from IAMs - we find that this may represent a substantial 571-fold surge in selenium demand and a 531-fold increase in gallium, figures that seem difficult to achieve. This challenges not only the capacity of material reserves but also the rate at which these can be produced. To address this gap, we propose establishing a direct link between industrial assets and required materials through simple constraints on material availability. We illustrate the capabilities of this approach by estimating the achievable clean energy capacities by 2050. We find potential shortages in the capacity developed for clean energy technologies compared to IAM projections that may result in deviations from the Paris agreement target by 0.06-0.95 °C. Therefore, incorporating material constraints and technological diversity into IAMs presents a valuable opportunity to enhance their predictive accuracy and guide evidence-based policymaking. Including these aspects in IAMs and decision-support tools will make them more useful in shaping a sustainable yet realistic energy sector.
Thematic Areas: Astronomia / física Biotecnología Chemistry, multidisciplinary Energy & fuels Engenharias i Engenharias ii Engenharias iv Engineering, chemical Environmental chemistry Environmental sciences Materiais Nuclear energy and engineering Pollution Química Renewable energy, sustainability and the environment
licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Author's mail: laureano.jimenez@urv.cat fatemeh.rostami@urv.cat carlos.pozo@urv.cat
Author identifier: 0000-0002-3186-7235
Record's date: 2024-10-12
Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Link to the original source: https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2024/ee/d4ee00747f
Papper original source: Energy & Environmental Science. 17 (14): 5241-5259
APA: Rostami F; Patrizio P; Jimenez L; Pozo C; Mac Dowell N (2024). Assessing the realism of clean energy projections. Energy & Environmental Science, 17(14), 5241-5259. DOI: 10.1039/d4ee00747f
Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
Article's DOI: 10.1039/d4ee00747f
Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Journal publication year: 2024
Publication Type: Journal Publications