Autor según el artículo: Reyna-Lara, Adriana; Soriano-Panos, David; Gomez, Sergio; Granell, Clara; Matamalas, Joan T.; Steinegger, Benjamin; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus;

Departamento: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Autor/es de la URV: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro / Gómez Jiménez, Sergio / Matamalas Llodrà, Joan Tomàs / Steinegger, Benjamin Franz Josef

Palabras clave: Viruses Transmission chains Reproduction numbers Quantitative result Network topology Economics Economic and social effects Economic activities Dynamical process Diseases Disease control Covid-19 Compartmental model Cell proliferation Analytical expressions

Resumen: After the blockade that many nations suffered to stop the growth of the incidence curve of COVID-19 during the first half of 2020, they face the challenge of resuming their social and economic activity. The rapid airborne transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, and the absence of a vaccine, calls for active containment measures to avoid the propagation of transmission chains. The best strategy to date, popularly known as test-track-treat (TTT), consists in testing the population for diagnosis, tracking the contacts of those infected, and treating by quarantine all these cases. The dynamical process that better describes the combined action of the former mechanisms is that of a contagion process that competes with the spread of the pathogen, cutting off potential contagion pathways. Here we propose a compartmental model that couples the dynamics of the infection with the contact tracing and isolation of cases. We develop an analytical expression for the effective case reproduction number R-c(t) that reveals the role of contact tracing in the mitigation and suppression of the epidemics. We show that there is a trade-off between the infection propagation and the isolation of cases. If the isolation is limited to symptomatic individuals only, the incidence curve can be flattened but not bent. However, if contact tracing is applied to asymptomatic individuals too, the strategy can bend the curve and suppress the epidemics. Quantitative results are dependent on the network topology. We quantify the most important indicator of the effectiveness of contact tracing, namely, its capacity to reverse the increasing tendency of the epidemic curve, causing its bending.

Áreas temáticas: Physics, multidisciplinary Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all)

Acceso a la licencia de uso: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/

Direcció de correo del autor: joantomas.matamalas@urv.cat alexandre.arenas@urv.cat sergio.gomez@urv.cat benjamin.steinegger@estudiants.urv.cat

Identificador del autor: 0000-0002-7563-9269 0000-0003-0937-0334 0000-0003-1820-0062 0000-0002-0723-1536

Fecha de alta del registro: 2023-08-05

Versión del articulo depositado: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Enlace a la fuente original: https://journals.aps.org/prresearch/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013163

URL Documento de licencia: http://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/

Referencia al articulo segun fuente origial: Physical Review Research. 3 (1):

Referencia de l'ítem segons les normes APA: Reyna-Lara, Adriana; Soriano-Panos, David; Gomez, Sergio; Granell, Clara; Matamalas, Joan T.; Steinegger, Benjamin; Arenas, Alex; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesu (2021). Virus spread versus contact tracing: Two competing contagion processes. Physical Review Research, 3(1), -. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013163

DOI del artículo: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013163

Entidad: Universitat Rovira i Virgili

Año de publicación de la revista: 2021

Tipo de publicación: Journal Publications