Autor según el artículo: Poux-Medard, Gael; Cobo-Lopez, Sergio; Duch, Jordi; Guimera, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta;

Departamento: Enginyeria Química

Autor/es de la URV: Duch Gavaldà, Jordi / Guimera Manrique, Roger / Sales Pardo, Marta

Palabras clave: Stochastic block model Prediction Persistence Human behavior Decision making process Choice mechanisms Blockmodels

Resumen: Many studies have shown that there are regularities in the way human beings make decisions. However, our ability to obtain models that capture such regularities and can accurately predict unobserved decisions is still limited. We tackle this problem in the context of individuals who are given information relative to the evolution of market prices and asked to guess the direction of the market. We use a networks inference approach with stochastic block models (SBM) to find the model and network representation that is most predictive of unobserved decisions. Our results suggest that users mostly use recent information (about the market and about their previous decisions) to guess. Furthermore, the analysis of SBM groups reveals a set of strategies used by players to process information and make decisions that is analogous to behaviors observed in other contexts. Our study provides and example on how to quantitatively explore human behavior strategies by representing decisions as networks and using rigorous inference and model-selection approaches.

Áreas temáticas: Social sciences, mathematical methods Modeling and simulation Mathematics, interdisciplinary applications Engenharias iv Engenharias i Computer science applications Computational mathematics Ciencias sociales Ciência da computação

Acceso a la licencia de uso: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/

Direcció de correo del autor: roger.guimera@urv.cat marta.sales@urv.cat jordi.duch@urv.cat

Identificador del autor: 0000-0002-3597-4310 0000-0002-8140-6525 0000-0003-2639-6333

Fecha de alta del registro: 2023-02-19

Volumen de revista: 10

Versión del articulo depositado: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Enlace a la fuente original: https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/articles/10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00280-z

URL Documento de licencia: http://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/

Referencia al articulo segun fuente origial: Epj Data Science. 10 (1):

Referencia de l'ítem segons les normes APA: Poux-Medard, Gael; Cobo-Lopez, Sergio; Duch, Jordi; Guimera, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta; (2021). Complex decision-making strategies in a stock market experiment explained as the combination of few simple strategies. Epj Data Science, 10(1), -. DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00280-z

DOI del artículo: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00280-z

Entidad: Universitat Rovira i Virgili

Año de publicación de la revista: 2021

Tipo de publicación: Journal Publications