Revistes Publicacions URV: SORT - Statistics and Operations Research Transactions> 2019

A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition. Forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish competition

  • Identification data

    Identifier: RP:3410
    Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/RP3410
    Authors:
    Pérez Sánchez, José MaríaDávila Cárdenes, NancyGómez-Déniz, Emilio
    Abstract:
    In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams.

  • Others:

    URV's Author/s: Pérez Sánchez, José María Dávila Cárdenes, Nancy Gómez-Déniz, Emilio
    Keywords: Covariate, football data, forecasting, regression, sport statistics, truncated distribution, weighted distribution
    Abstract: In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams.
    Journal publication year: 2019
    Publication Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article

  • Keywords:

    Covariate, football data, forecasting, regression, sport statistics, truncated distribution, weighted distribution

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