Autor/es de la URV: Barber, Antoni Morales, Javier Mayoral, Asuncion Lopez-Quílez, Antonio Conesa, David Barber, Xavier

Palabras clave: Bioclimatology, geostatistics, parallel computation, spatial prediction

Resumen: A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the spatial bioclimatic probability distribution of each bioclimatic index, which allows researchers to obtain the probability of each location belonging to different bioclimates. The methodology is evaluated on two indices in the Island of Cyprus.

Año de publicación de la revista: 2017

Tipo de publicación: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article