Autor/es de la URV: Martinez, Edson Santos Previdelli, Isolde Terezinha Marques de Mello, Luane Casale Aragon, Davi Mota de Queiroz, José André

Palabras clave: Time series, regression models, Bayesian methods, change-point model, epidemiological data

Resumen: In this paper, it is proposed a Bayesian analysis of a time series in the presence of a random change-point and autoregressive terms. The development of this model was motivated by a data set related to the monthly number of asthma medications dispensed by the public health services of Ribeirão Preto, Southeast Brazil, from 1999 to 2011. A pronounced increase trend has been observed from 1999 to a specific change-point, with a posterior decrease until the end of the series. In order to obtain estimates for the parameters of interest, a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation procedure using the Gibbs sampler algorithm was developed. The Bayesian model with autoregressive terms of order 1 fits well to the data, allowing to estimate the change-point at July 2007, and probably reflecting the results of the new health policies and previously adopted programs directed toward patients with asthma. The results imply that the present model is useful to analyse the monthly number of dispensed asthma medications and it can be used to describe a broad range of epidemiological time series data where a change-point is present.

Año de publicación de la revista: 2018

Tipo de publicación: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article