El mercado de renta fija argentino: análisis interno y comparativo

Identificador:  TDX:593

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/TDX593

Autores:  Guercio, María Belén

Resumen:
During the last years, the occurrence of several major financial crises in the emerging markets has led a number of studies on the determinants such crises. Financial vulnerability to external and internal shocks, is one of the key variables to explain the emergence of financial crises, as well as the different channels through which shocks could be transmitted toward other economies with similar levels of development, i.e, contagion.Several authors have studied the causes an economies financial vulnerability and many of them conclude that the structure of the issuance of government bonds is closely related to the degree of financial vulnerability of an economy. In this context, a series of works claims that when financial system disruptions appear, there are securities whose emission characteristics cause unexpected changes, and raise the risk of default by the government. The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution of the Argentine bond market, which suffered the contagion of financial crises that were triggered in the emerging economies throughout the decade of the'90s, and which also suffered its own crises, the worst crises in its history.The analysis of the Argentine bond market was conducted from two perspectives: internal and comparative analysis. The internal analysis includes two stages. In the first stage (1990-2001) we describe the evolution of the market from what we call the birth of the fixed income market. The second stage (2005-2008), we describe the restructuring of public debt in default and the new securities issues.The comparative analysis was carried out through the description of the bond market countries grouped by their level of development. With this purpuse, we select two grups of countries: developed and emerging countries, in the last case, emphasizing the main countries of Latin America. In this context, we observed that in the Argentine market contains a number of specials features which are presented either in developed markets or other emerging markets in the region.These results together with the internal analysis was used to detect the current problems being faced with the Argentine Government, when issuing debt securities, and give to possible solutions with the aim of improving the quality of the debt of this country.