Analysis of the convergence hypothesis for the countries that form the OECD

Identifier:  TFG:817

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/TFG817

Authors:  Robles Urgal, Pedro; Serrano Fornós, Jesús

Abstract:
This paper studies and analyzes the characteristics of the process of economic convergence between regions within the OECD during the period 1980-2014. To this end the proposed Barro and Sala-Marti development (1995) growth model Solow-Swan for from it perform an empirical analysis of the convergence hypothesis using the generalized method of moments for dynamic panel data is used . Initially a study of the sigma convergence is done through the dispersion of per capita GDP. Departing 1980 des evidence for the existence of a reduction in the dispersion of this variable around 30% is obtained. The empirical analysis performed covers the period 1990-2014. Using variant GMM estimator proposed by Arellano and Bover, GMM estimator systems, the main results obtained for beta convergence are as follows. For the analysis of absolute convergence speed positive convergence environment to 0.25% it is obtained. This result shows the current idea that countries have the same steady state. In the analysis of conditional convergence assuming that the explanatory variables are strictly exogenous rate of convergence -5'22% is obtained, this result is quite high when compared with the results of the iron law of convergence. Performing the same analysis but this time assuming the existence of exogenous variables and the predetermined outcome of the convergence speed is -3'27%. Therefore it can be concluded that if you are following a process of convergence in OECD countries. To end a structural change identified in 2008, when estimating the convergence rate for the period 1990-2007, this period is characterized by a relatively rapid process of convergence.