Autor segons l'article: Guimera, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta
Departament: Enginyeria Química
Autor/s de la URV: Guimera Manrique, Roger / Sales Pardo, Marta
Paraules clau: United states Supreme court decisions Social justice Network analysis Models, theoretical Ideological values Humans House-of-representatives Decision making Complex networks Community structure Blockmodels
Resum: Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a justice's vote based on the other justices' votes in the same case. For our predictions, we use models and methods that have been developed to uncover hidden associations between actors in complex social networks. We show that these methods are more accurate at predicting justice's votes than forecasts made by legal experts and by algorithms that take into consideration the content of the cases. We argue that, within our framework, high predictability is a quantitative proxy for stable justice (and case) blocks, which probably reflect stable a priori attitudes toward the law. We find that U. S. Supreme Court justice votes are more predictable than one would expect from an ideal court composed of perfectly independent justices. Deviations from ideal behavior are most apparent in divided 5-4 decisions, where justice blocks seem to be most stable. Moreover, we find evidence that justice predictability decreased during the 50-year period spanning from the Warren Court to the Rehnquist Court, and that aggregate court predictability has been significantly lower during Democratic presidencies. More broadly, our results show that it is possible to use methods developed for the analysis of complex social networks to quantitatively investigate historical questions related to political decision-making.
Àrees temàtiques: Zootecnia / recursos pesqueiros Sociology Sociología Serviço social Saúde coletiva Química Psychology Psicología Planejamento urbano e regional / demografia Odontología Nutrição Multidisciplinary sciences Multidisciplinary Medicine (miscellaneous) Medicina veterinaria Medicina iii Medicina ii Medicina i Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Linguística e literatura Letras / linguística Interdisciplinary research in the social sciences Interdisciplinar Human geography and urban studies History & philosophy of science Historia Geografía Geociências General medicine General biochemistry,genetics and molecular biology General agricultural and biological sciences Farmacia Environmental studies Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias ii Engenharias i Enfermagem Educação física Educação Economia Direito Demography Comunicação e informação Ciências sociais aplicadas i Ciências biológicas iii Ciências biológicas ii Ciências biológicas i Ciências ambientais Ciências agrárias i Ciência política e relações internacionais Ciência de alimentos Ciência da computação Biotecnología Biology Biodiversidade Biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (miscellaneous) Astronomia / física Arquitetura, urbanismo e design Archaeology Antropologia / arqueologia Anthropology Agricultural and biological sciences (miscellaneous) Administração, ciências contábeis e turismo Administração pública e de empresas, ciências contábeis e turismo
Accès a la llicència d'ús: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Adreça de correu electrònic de l'autor: roger.guimera@urv.cat marta.sales@urv.cat
Identificador de l'autor: 0000-0002-3597-4310 0000-0002-8140-6525
Data d'alta del registre: 2024-10-19
Versió de l'article dipositat: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Enllaç font original: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0027188
URL Document de llicència: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
Referència a l'article segons font original: Plos One. 6 (11): e27188-
Referència de l'ítem segons les normes APA: Guimera, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta (2011). Justice Blocks and Predictability of US Supreme Court Votes. Plos One, 6(11), e27188-. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027188
DOI de l'article: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027188
Entitat: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Any de publicació de la revista: 2011
Tipus de publicació: Journal Publications