Author, as appears in the article.: Cota, Wesley; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, A; Ferreira, Silvio C; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus
Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro
Keywords: Transmissions Theoretical framework Systems Super-spreaders Social behavior Sars Network Models Mobility pattern Microscopic mechanisms Metapopulations Mers Infectious disease Human mobility Events Epidemiology Epidemic threshold Epidemic processes Epidemic models Ebola Diseases Demographic distributions Covid-19 Complex networks
Abstract: Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature.
Thematic Areas: Química Psicología Physics, multidisciplinary Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) Medicina ii Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar General physics and astronomy Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias i Ciências biológicas i Ciência da computação Biotecnología Astronomia / física
licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Author's mail: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
Author identifier: 0000-0003-0937-0334
Record's date: 2024-09-28
Journal volume: 23
Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Link to the original source: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
Papper original source: New Journal Of Physics. 23 (7): 073019-
APA: Cota, Wesley; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, A; Ferreira, Silvio C; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus (2021). Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility. New Journal Of Physics, 23(7), 073019-. DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
Article's DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Journal publication year: 2021
Publication Type: Journal Publications