Articles producció científica> Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques

Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility

  • Identification data

    Identifier: imarina:9223939
    Authors:
    Cota, WesleySoriano-Panos, DavidArenas, AFerreira, Silvio CGomez-Gardenes, Jesus
    Abstract:
    Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature.
  • Others:

    Author, as appears in the article.: Cota, Wesley; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, A; Ferreira, Silvio C; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus
    Department: Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques
    URV's Author/s: Arenas Moreno, Alejandro
    Keywords: Transmissions Theoretical framework Systems Super-spreaders Social behavior Sars Network Models Mobility pattern Microscopic mechanisms Metapopulations Mers Infectious disease Human mobility Events Epidemiology Epidemic threshold Epidemic processes Epidemic models Ebola Diseases Demographic distributions Covid-19 Complex networks
    Abstract: Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature.
    Thematic Areas: Química Psicología Physics, multidisciplinary Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous) Physics and astronomy (all) Medicina ii Materiais Matemática / probabilidade e estatística Interdisciplinar General physics and astronomy Ensino Engenharias iv Engenharias iii Engenharias i Ciências biológicas i Ciência da computação Biotecnología Astronomia / física
    licence for use: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
    Author's mail: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
    Author identifier: 0000-0003-0937-0334
    Record's date: 2024-09-28
    Journal volume: 23
    Papper version: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Link to the original source: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
    Licence document URL: https://repositori.urv.cat/ca/proteccio-de-dades/
    Papper original source: New Journal Of Physics. 23 (7): 073019-
    APA: Cota, Wesley; Soriano-Panos, David; Arenas, A; Ferreira, Silvio C; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus (2021). Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility. New Journal Of Physics, 23(7), 073019-. DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
    Article's DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
    Entity: Universitat Rovira i Virgili
    Journal publication year: 2021
    Publication Type: Journal Publications
  • Keywords:

    Physics and Astronomy (Miscellaneous),Physics, Multidisciplinary
    Transmissions
    Theoretical framework
    Systems
    Super-spreaders
    Social behavior
    Sars
    Network
    Models
    Mobility pattern
    Microscopic mechanisms
    Metapopulations
    Mers
    Infectious disease
    Human mobility
    Events
    Epidemiology
    Epidemic threshold
    Epidemic processes
    Epidemic models
    Ebola
    Diseases
    Demographic distributions
    Covid-19
    Complex networks
    Química
    Psicología
    Physics, multidisciplinary
    Physics and astronomy (miscellaneous)
    Physics and astronomy (all)
    Medicina ii
    Materiais
    Matemática / probabilidade e estatística
    Interdisciplinar
    General physics and astronomy
    Ensino
    Engenharias iv
    Engenharias iii
    Engenharias i
    Ciências biológicas i
    Ciência da computação
    Biotecnología
    Astronomia / física
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