Effects of extreme stratospheric polar vortex events on near-surface wind gusts across Europe

Identifier:  imarina:9379235

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/imarina9379235

Authors:  Utrabo-Carazo, Eduardo; Lockwood, Julia F; Dunn, Robert J H; Minola, Lorenzo; Aguilar, Enric; Azorin-Molina, Cesar

Abstract:
Extreme stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) events can influence winter tropospheric circulation for up to 60 d. Their impacts on air temperature have been extensively studied recently. However, there is a research gap in their effects on wind speeds and its extremes. This study aims to evaluate, for the first time, the impacts of such extreme SPV events on observed and modelled near-surface wind gusts across Europe. We have analysed wind gust data coming from: station-based observations (for the Iberian Peninsula and Scandinavia), the ERA5 reanalysis and the SEAS5 and GloSea6 seasonal forecasting systems. We assess their similarities in reproducing 4 parameters of their corresponding distributions: median, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. For all these datasets, the results indicate that extreme positive SPV events are followed by negative wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and positive in Northern Europe. Whereas, negative SPV events (such as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) have positive gust anomalies in Southern Europe and negative in the north. A central region shows negligible anomalies in both cases. This highlights the ability of SPV as a predictor for short-medium-term forecasting of extreme wind events, which would have direct applications to many socioeconomic and environmental issues such as the estimation of wind-power generation.