Long Short-Term Memory Wavelet Neural Network for Renewable Energy Generation Forecasting

Identifier:  imarina:9438479

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/imarina9438479

Authors:  Vivas, Eliana; Allende-Cid, Hector; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Bariviera, Aurelio F; Salas, Rodrigo

Abstract:
Renewable energy forecasting is crucial for pollution prevention, management, and long-term sustainability. In response to the challenges associated with energy forecasting, the simultaneous deployment of several data-processing approaches has been used in a variety of studies in order to improve the energy-time-series analysis, finding that, when combined with the wavelet analysis, deep learning techniques can achieve high accuracy in energy forecasting applications. Consequently, we investigate the implementation of various wavelets within the structure of a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), resulting in the new LSTM wavelet (LSTMW) neural network. In addition, and as an improvement phase, we modeled the uncertainty and incorporated it into the forecast so that systemic biases and deviations could be accounted for (LSTMW with luster: LSTMWL). The models were evaluated using data from six renewable power generation plants in Chile. When compared to other approaches, experimental results show that our method provides a prediction error within an acceptable range, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) between 0.73 and 0.98 across different test scenarios, and a consistent alignment between forecasted and observed values, particularly during the first 3 prediction steps.