Revistes Publicacions URV: SORT - Statistics and Operations Research Transactions> 2015

Robust project management with the tilted beta distribution

  • Dades identificatives

    Identificador: RP:2433
    Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/RP2433
    Autors:
    López Martín, María del MarHahn, Eugene D.
    Resum:
    Recent years have seen an increase in the development of robust approaches for stochastic project management methodologies such as PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). These robust approaches allow for elevated likelihoods of outlying events, thereby widening interval estimates of project completion times. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that outlying events and/or expert judgments may be asymmetric. We propose the tilted beta distribution which permits both elevated likelihoods of outlying events as well as an asymmetric representation of these events. We examine the use of the tilted beta distribution in PERT with respect to other project management distributions.

  • Altres:

    Autor/s de la URV: López Martín, María del Mar Hahn, Eugene D.
    Paraules clau: Activity times, finite mixture, PERT, tilted beta distribution, robust project management, sensitivity analysis
    Resum: Recent years have seen an increase in the development of robust approaches for stochastic project management methodologies such as PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). These robust approaches allow for elevated likelihoods of outlying events, thereby widening interval estimates of project completion times. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that outlying events and/or expert judgments may be asymmetric. We propose the tilted beta distribution which permits both elevated likelihoods of outlying events as well as an asymmetric representation of these events. We examine the use of the tilted beta distribution in PERT with respect to other project management distributions.
    Any de publicació de la revista: 2015
    Tipus de publicació: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article

  • Paraules clau:

    Activity times, finite mixture, PERT, tilted beta distribution, robust project management, sensitivity analysis

  • Documents:

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