Geopronósticos de asentamientos con construcción civil en áreas periféricas basado en autómatas celulares, caso zona crítica de Quito - Ecuador

Identifier:  TDX:4014

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/TDX4014

Authors:  Ulloa Espíndola, Renè

Abstract:
This doctoral thesis demonstrates that spatial studies of urban expansion play a strategic role in the planning, design, monitoring and prevention of risks in the urban peripheries of the city of Quito. The main objective of the research is to develop a geostatistical model that allows the prediction of possible future settlements in critical outskirts of the city of Quito, using the northern outskirts of the Calderón parish as a case study. To develop the model, in the first place, the review of previous studies is carried out to investigate the methods, techniques, and tools; in addition, to investigating the driving factors used that stimulate urban sprawl. Consequently, the structured geostatistical model is built with the following elements: 1) the rates of change between 'land without construction' and 'land with construction' through transition matrices (Markov); 2) probability maps (transition) through weights of evidence elaborated based on the combination of driving factors (predictor variables); 4) simulations of new settlements (urban expansion) based on cellular automata (CA); 5) model validation; and 6) projections of future scenarios of urban growth for the next 30 years. The results of the application of the model have made it possible to quantify, dimension and locate the probable urban growth so that the built-up area in the study area will be three times larger by 2050 (9 km2) than in 2018 (3 km2). In this way, it was possible to verify the hypothesis that 'multivariate spatial analysis, complemented by the methodology of cellular automata in a geographic information system, is able to generate effective predictive models that contribute to the understanding, monitoring and control of urban densification in the periphery of cities and, consequently, of urban sprawl', and it was confirmed that the method used fits precisely to the geographic study of urban sprawl.