Evolution and analysis of the IBEX 35 during the United States electoral period (2016 - 2024)

Identifier:  TFG:9116

Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/TFG9116

Authors:  Bargalló Ortega, Aleix

Abstract:
This paper analyzes how the United States presidential election processes may influence the behavior of the IBEX 35, Spain’s main stock market index. From an economic and financial perspective, a comparative study is conducted on the electoral cycles of the years 2016, 2020 and 2024, using daily logarithmic returns. Indicators such as volatility, geometric return, correlation, and performance ratios (Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen) are calculated to observe the evolution of risk and return across the different stages of the electoral process. In addition, several extraordinary events that occurred during the period (such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine) are considered to assess their impact on the market and on the hypotheses proposed. The results show that, although the electoral process can generate some impact on the IBEX 35, it is global events that lead to more significant changes in the behavior of the Spanish stock market.